We are pleased to announce that the Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) commuting layer has been extended to Wales (see http://www.pct.bike/m/?r=wales) thanks to funding from the Welsh Government.

The PCT now covers Wales in the interactive online map (allowing publicly accessible visualisation of cycling potential) and the data downloads (providing open access data to inform transport planning decisions). The four user manuals have also been translated into Welsh.

The results reveal that, on average, cycling potential in Wales is somewhat lower than in England. This reflects the fact that trip distances are slightly longer (the proportion of trips over 10km is 47% in Wales compared with 43% in England) and that the average hilliness is greater (mean gradient 3.6% vs. 2.2%). These factors help explain why the observed 2011 cycle mode share for commuting in Wales was half that seen in England (1.6% vs. 3.2%).

The potential for cycling increase in Wales is nevertheless substantial, as indicated by the local authority-level results shown below for the Go Dutch scenario. As the table shows, the potential cycle mode share is over 7% in all Welsh local authorities in the Go Dutch scenario. With the greater distances and hilliness substantially higher cycling levels (over 15%) are seen in the Ebikes scenario. Cardiff has the highest cycling potential: a quarter of commutes could be made by bike under the Go Dutch scenario, and a third in the Ebikes scenario (full results in the table below). These local authority level results were generated via the downloads available on the national data download page.

Table: Proportion of commuters cycling to work in the 2011 census, and in the Go Dutch and Ebikes scenarios

Local Authority Census 2011 Go Dutch scenario Ebikes scenario
Blaenau Gwent 0.5% 8.8% 18.3%
Bridgend 0.9% 13.0% 21.3%
Caerphilly 0.7% 8.4% 17.8%
Cardiff 3.9% 25.4% 32.8%
Carmarthenshire 0.9% 10.8% 18.5%
Ceredigion 1.4% 9.2% 18.1%
Conwy 1.5% 14.0% 21.8%
Denbighshire 1.8% 16.4% 23.0%
Flintshire 1.9% 14.1% 22.1%
Gwynedd 1.5% 9.5% 18.2%
Isle of Anglesey 1.7% 10.1% 17.9%
Merthyr Tydfil 0.3% 10.4% 20.6%
Monmouthshire 1.3% 11.0% 17.3%
Neath Port Talbot 1.4% 12.7% 20.8%
Newport 1.5% 16.2% 25.5%
Pembrokeshire 1.0% 10.7% 19.8%
Powys 1.7% 9.6% 17.4%
Rhondda Cynon Taf 0.5% 7.2% 15.9%
Swansea 1.6% 13.6% 24.4%
The Vale of Glamorgan 1.9% 14.3% 23.1%
Torfaen 0.9% 12.0% 22.0%
Wrexham 1.4% 18.4% 26.6%